POLYMARKET TRADING DASHBOARD

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BTC Production Bot STALLED

Record
149W/130L
53.4% win rate
Tracker Bankroll
$0.11
what bot thinks it has
On-Chain USDC
$0.12
actual balance

BTC Market Maker LIVE

Bankroll
$2.60
started $100 | ROI -97.40%
Spread P&L
$-203.12
rebates: $8.99
Orders
1067
failed: 3487
Resolved
561
0 open

Last reconcile: — tracker $10.45 vs on-chain $16.67 (drift $-6.22)

Live vs Dry (inline sim — same windows)

Resolved Windows
561
Fill Match %
22.5%
Dry Sim P&L
$+142.1100
Live P&L
$-194.1328
delta $-336.2428 | ratio -136.6%

Live vs Standalone Dry (matched windows)

Common Windows
10
Fill Match %
10.0%
Dry P&L
$+3.2835
Live P&L
$-6.9258
ratio: -210.9%

BTC Market Maker DRY RUN

Bankroll
$753.40
started $500 | ROI +50.7%
Spread P&L
$242.96
rebates: $10.44
Markets
8021
4571 resolved, 3450 active
Fill Rate
10.4%
832 filled markets

BTC Multivariant Dry Run LIVE

Updated: 2026-05-17T22:39:38.657544-04:00 | Signals: 75969 | Windows: 1672

Best Strategy
Moderate
max ask $0.8
ROI
+6990.2%
Bankroll
$7090.18
started $100
Record
1069W/551L
1620 resolved, 1107 open
StrategyMax AskBankrollROIW/LWin %Open
Conservative$0.7$0.00+-100.0%699W / 483L59%0
Moderate$0.8$7090.18+6990.2%1069W / 551L66%1107
Aggressive$0.85$5439.09+5339.1%1112W / 555L67%1142
Very Aggressive$0.9$5441.43+5341.4%1117W / 555L67%1147

Weather Market Dry Run (NYC Daily High) STOPPED

LaGuardia now: 75.2°F (02:25 UTC)  |  NWS high: 73°F (need +2°F)  |  GFS high: 83.1°F (81-85°F, need +8°F)  |  gap: 10.1°F
Bankroll
$810.28
started $100 | ROI +710.3%
Available Capital
$0.00
$810.28 locked in open trades
Open Trades
9
Resolved
147W/61L
208 total | 70.7% WR
P&L
$+2835.02
Voided
138
phantom capital

Open Positions

DateBracketDirBuyStakeEdgeForecastModel
2026-03-20<=59FYES$0.520$101.21+40.1%52F (GFS:52.0F)AGREE
2026-03-21<=41FNO$0.750$1.00-24.9%53F (GFS:49.6F)AGREE
2026-03-21<=59FYES$0.255$0.42+37.6%56F (GFS:58.5F)AGREE
2026-03-21>=60FYES$0.147$12.47+18.1%58F (GFS:56.9F)AGREE
2026-03-23>=84FYES$0.405$3.29+19.3%85F (GFS:83.2F)AGREE
2026-03-23<=51FNO$0.545$332.86-29.0%54F (GFS:54.9F)AGREE
2026-03-22<=63FYES$0.325$135.61+21.7%63F (GFS:63.2F)AGREE
2026-03-24>=56FNO$0.635$8.54-33.2%51F (GFS:52.1F)AGREE
2026-03-31>=74FNO$0.640$214.88-19.3%72F (GFS:69.7F)AGREE

72h BTC Backtest Results

Trades
251
Wins
250
Losses
1
Win Rate
99.6%
Net P&L
$2640.51
Return
10.52%

Multi-Asset Backtest Comparison

AssetPeriodTradesWin RateNet P&LReturnAvg Fill
BTC72h25199.6%$2640.5110.52%0.905
ETH24h8696.5%$4913.3657.13%0.630
SOL24h9390.3%$6581.3470.77%0.524
XRP24h8893.2%$6707.9176.23%0.525

Backtest Trades by Hour (ET)

12 AM9W 7S
1 AM11W 8S
2 AM10W 4S
3 AM9W 4S
4 AM8W 5S
5 AM9W 5S
6 AM6W 4S
7 AM9W 5S
8 AM10W 7S
9 AM11W 9S
10 AM13W 12S
11 AM14W 13S
12 PM12W 9S
1 PM14W 6S
2 PM10W 9S
3 PM12W 7S
4 PM11W 4S
5 PM10W 7S
6 PM11W 7S
7 PM13W 8S
8 PM17W 8S
9 PM10W 7S
10 PM13W 4S
11 PM9W 7S

Green = wins, Red = losses. Peak hours: 10 AM - 1 PM ET, 7-8 PM ET

Dry Run Status

Running: 09:40:47 PM ET — 09:40:16 PM ET

Windows Monitored
113
Simulated Trades
0
Skip (No Liquidity)
38
No Signal
63
Signal Rate
34%
Fill Rate
0%

Recent Activity

09:40:16 PM ET No trades triggered
09:40:16 PM ET DRY RUN COMPLETE — 4 windows watched
09:40:16 PM ET ============================================================
09:40:15 PM ET btc-updown-5m-1772073300: Binance -0.042% — no signal
09:30:15 PM ET btc-updown-5m-1772072700: Binance +0.016% — no signal
09:25:15 PM ET btc-updown-5m-1772072400: Binance -0.066% — no signal
09:23:57 PM ET ============================================================
09:23:57 PM ET Duration: 0.2h
09:23:57 PM ET Capital per trade: $100.00
09:23:57 PM ET Threshold: 0.1%, Max entry: 0.95
09:23:57 PM ET Assets: BTC
09:23:57 PM ET Dry Run Started
05:45:16 AM ET No trades triggered
05:45:16 AM ET DRY RUN COMPLETE — 97 windows watched
05:45:16 AM ET ============================================================
05:45:15 AM ET btc-updown-5m-1772102400: Binance -0.060% — no signal
05:40:15 AM ET btc-updown-5m-1772102100: Binance +0.078% — no signal
05:25:15 AM ET btc-updown-5m-1772101200: Binance -0.011% — no signal
05:20:15 AM ET btc-updown-5m-1772100900: Binance -0.074% — no signal
05:10:15 AM ET btc-updown-5m-1772100300: Binance +0.039% — no signal
05:05:15 AM ET btc-updown-5m-1772100000: Binance +0.004% — no signal
05:00:15 AM ET btc-updown-5m-1772099700: Binance +0.007% — no signal
04:45:15 AM ET btc-updown-5m-1772098800: Binance -0.009% — no signal
Generated: 2026-05-18 02:50:50 UTC | fridayops.xyz